The Macro tab reads the market backdrop in five faces as of 6 Nov 2026: risk gauges, FX, commodities, crypto and corporate bond markets. Each is a set of pages with its own question, board and evidence.
Risk gauges: STRESSED — 3 of 6 US risk flags on (curve, credit, vix); nearest trigger TREND 7376.9 vs 7325.1.
FX: USD CUSHION HOLDS — Dollar index +0.2% in 1 month (3-month move at the 77th pct).
Commodities: WTI +0.8% in 1 month (52nd pct of 5y), OVX 58 (87th pct); gold -2.0% (26th pct).
Crypto: Stale: last good block 2026-11-06. BTC +3.5% vs its 200-day average (45th pct); DVOL 39 (15th pct); no validated equity-timing signal.
Bonds: 22 markets, $14.0T of corporate debt, outstanding-weighted spread 102 bp over government curves, 73.7% of rated families investment grade.
The signals are measured, not asserted: of the 108 rules tested across the four cross-asset faces, 29 are validated, 19 provisional, 12 descriptive and 48 found no edge. In-sample: these rules were written down after a first look at the same history, so every label here is in-sample. Only results logged from 2026-09-25 onward (the forward ledger) are truly out-of-sample.
Validated: the 95% range excludes zero, both halves of the history agree in sign, there are at least 20 separate windows and 10 episodes, and it survives the false-discovery check (q at or below 0.10) across every macro test.
Provisional: the 95% range (or the 90% range) excludes zero but one of the other validation checks fails: a tilt, not a rule.
Descriptive: context only: the range includes zero or there were too few cases to test.
No edge: a test stated in advance that found no edge on this history.
Fact: arithmetic (currency translation, hedge cost), not a statistical claim.
Prices and indicators are TradingView closes; credit spreads come from FRED and bond prints from TRACE and European venues. Nothing here is investment advice. How the numbers are made.
Questions
What does the Macro tab show?
It compares the market backdrop in five faces: risk gauges (six US risk flags, credit, volatility, rates, breadth), FX (the dollar, currency effects on S$ and ₹ returns, hedge cost), commodities (oil, gold, copper and the stocks tied to them), crypto (bitcoin, dominance and linked stocks) and corporate bond markets by country. Every page shows the date of its data.
Are the macro signals forecasts?
No. Each rule is tested on history and labelled: of 108 rules, 29 are validated, 19 provisional, 12 descriptive and 48 found no edge. In-sample: these rules were written down after a first look at the same history, so every label here is in-sample. Only results logged from 2026-09-25 onward (the forward ledger) are truly out-of-sample.
How often is the Macro data updated?
Every face is rebuilt daily from TradingView and the other feeds named on each page. Every page shows the date of its data, and futures, crypto and index rows carry their own time stamps. This index is dated 6 Nov 2026.