How do oil, gold and copper prices affect stocks?

Measured as same-week co-movement after the market (beta): Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) +0.76 per 1% Copper move (95% range [+0.46, +1.28]); GDX (gold miners ETF) +1.71 per 1% Gold move (95% range [+1.53, +1.90]); NSE Metal index +0.14 per 1% Copper move (95% range [+0.06, +0.26]); XLE (US energy ETF) +0.39 per 1% Brent move (95% range [+0.26, +0.53]); ONGC + Oil India +0.35 per 1% Brent move (95% range [+0.23, +0.45]). This month's commodity moves map to Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) -3.8 pp; GDX (gold miners ETF) -3.4 pp; XLE (US energy ETF) -0.6 pp. These are descriptive betas, not forecasts.

Does a rise in oil prices weaken the Indian rupee?

Not measurably. The weekly beta of USD/INR to Brent since 2010 is -0.012 (95% range -0.034 to +0.006). After oil's biggest months USD/INR rose +0.8% over the next 63 sessions against +1.2% on all days (gap -0.4%, 95% range -0.9% to +0.1%).

What is OVX and where is it now?

OVX is CBOE's index of the volatility oil options price for the next month. It is 58.3 as of 6 Nov 2026, at the 87th percentile of the past 3 years, and implies a one-month range of about ±16.8%.

Commodity prices and the stocks that move with them

Where oil, gold, copper and natural gas stand against their own history, what this month's commodity moves map to in stock-market terms, and how oil volatility has related to dips.

Data as of 6 Nov 2026.

Open the commodities summary in the cockpit Futures board Stock exposure Evidence

One-month moves as of 6 Nov 2026 (roll-free for futures): WTI crude +0.8% (52nd percentile of 5 years); Brent crude -1.5% (38th percentile of 5 years); natural gas -15.0% (22nd percentile of 5 years); copper -5.0% (17th percentile of 5 years); gold -2.0% (26th percentile of 5 years). No validated equity signal comes from these moves by themselves; the betas below describe co-movement, not a forecast.
Oil implied volatility (OVX, CBOE's index of the volatility oil options price for the next month) is 58.3, at the 87th percentile of 3 years; it implies a one-month, one-standard-deviation range of ±16.8%, about ±$15.3 on WTI at $90.83. Gold's implied volatility (GVZ) is 26.0 (82nd percentile of 3 years).
At measured same-week weights, this month's moves map to: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) -3.8 pp implied against S&P 500 (SPY), -11.7 pp actual (Copper -5.0% over the month); GDX (gold miners ETF) -3.4 pp implied against S&P 500 (SPY), +3.9 pp actual (Gold -2.0% over the month); XLE (US energy ETF) -0.6 pp implied against S&P 500 (SPY), -4.0 pp actual (Brent -1.5% over the month); ONGC + Oil India -0.5 pp implied against Nifty, -10.7 pp actual (Brent -1.5% over the month). This is co-movement, not a forecast.
Gold miners are a leveraged gold exposure: GDX has moved 1.71 for every 1% move in gold beyond what the S&P 500 explains (95% range [+1.53, +1.90]; first and second halves of the history +1.65 / +1.85).
Oil does not measurably move the rupee: the weekly beta of USD/INR to Brent since 2010 is -0.012 (95% range -0.034 to +0.006), which is indistinguishable from zero.
Oil options have tended to price a bigger move than oil delivers (provisional): WTI's next-month move stayed inside the one-standard-deviation range implied by OVX 73.5% of the time, against 68.3% for a normal curve (217 separate months).

What this month's commodity moves map to

Same-week co-movement, not a forecast. Rows shown only when the 3-year and full-history betas share a sign. Implied/gap are DESCRIPTIVE. Baskets are today's members (survivorship).
Exposure	Driver	Driver, 1 month	Implied vs market	Actual vs market	Gap	Result
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)	Copper	-5.0%	-3.8 pp	-11.7 pp	-7.9 pp	Validated (weight)
GDX (gold miners ETF)	Gold	-2.0%	-3.4 pp	+3.9 pp	+7.3 pp	Validated (weight)
NSE Metal index	Copper	-5.0%	-0.7 pp	-6.8 pp	-6.1 pp	Validated (weight)
XLE (US energy ETF)	Brent	-1.5%	-0.6 pp	-4.0 pp	-3.4 pp	Validated (weight)
ONGC + Oil India	Brent	-1.5%	-0.5 pp	-10.7 pp	-10.1 pp	Validated (weight)
OMCs (BPCL, IOC, HPCL)	Brent	-1.5%	+0.4 pp	-0.3 pp	-0.7 pp	Validated (weight)
Paints (Asian, Berger)	Brent	-1.5%	+0.1 pp	-3.4 pp	-3.6 pp	Validated (weight)

When oil volatility is high: odds of a 7% dip within a month

OVX high = at or above its 3-year 80th percentile; a dip = a close at least 7% below that day's close within 21 sessions. A volatility-matched day is one with the same recent realised volatility. Signal moved to the next session (OVX closes after the equity close).
Target	OVX high	All days	Gap	95% range	Gap vs volatility-matched day	95% range (matched)	Episodes	Result
XLE (US energy)	30.7%	21.1%	+9.6 pp	[+1.9, +17.4] pp	+4.3 pp	[-2.3, +11.2] pp	18	Provisional
OMCs (BPCL, IOC, HPCL)	38.3%	30.1%	+8.1 pp	[-0.6, +17.5] pp	n/a	n/a	15	Provisional
Nifty	13.4%	8.0%	+5.4 pp	[-0.2, +11.6] pp	+4.2 pp	[-1.0, +9.6] pp	19	Provisional
SPY	12.9%	8.4%	+4.5 pp	[-1.2, +10.8] pp	n/a	n/a	18	Descriptive
NSE Energy	17.5%	14.6%	+2.9 pp	[-3.2, +10.0] pp	n/a	n/a	19	Descriptive

Commodity moves and implied volatility against their own history

Percentile among the same measure over the past 3 or 5 years.
Gauge	Level	Percentile of own history	History	1-year range	As of
OVX oil implied vol	58.3	87th	2023 on	28.4 to 120.9	6 Nov
GVZ gold implied vol	26.0	82nd	2023 on	19.6 to 46.0	6 Nov
WTI 1M move roll-free	+0.8%	52nd	2021 on	-27.9% to +54.6%	6 Nov
Brent 1M move	-1.5%	39th	2021 on	-26.7% to +57.6%	6 Nov
Nat gas 1M move	-15.0%	22nd	2021 on	-27.8% to +99.6%	6 Nov
Copper 1M move	-5.0%	17th	2021 on	-9.4% to +14.7%	6 Nov
Gold 1M move	-2.0%	26th	2021 on	-16.3% to +22.4%	6 Nov

Findings and the evidence behind them

Oil vol high: dips likelier, mostly priced Provisional

OVX is CBOE's index of the volatility oil options are pricing for the next month; today it is 58.3, the 87th percentile of 3 years. On days it sat at or above its 80th percentile, XLE (US energy ETF) fell 7% or more below that day's close within a month 31% of the time vs 21% on all days (OMCs 38% vs 30%, Nifty 13% vs 8%; both legs are weaker, labelled PROVISIONAL / PROVISIONAL: a 90% interval only or a failed multiple-testing check). Split-half: +19.3 pp in the first half, +2.2 pp in the second; the second half is weak (under a third of the full effect). Against a day with the same recent realised volatility (vol-matched), the XLE gap shrinks to +4.3 pp, CI [-2.3, +11.2] pp, i.e. not distinguishable from 0.

Evidence: +9.6 pp versus a baseline of 21.1%; 95% range +1.9 pp to +17.4 pp (64 separate windows, 18 episodes, both halves of history agree). Today: OVX 58.3, 87th pct of 3y (high). The condition holds today.

What this month's commodity moves map to Validated

Beta after market = the extra % a stock moves per 1% commodity move in the same week, beyond what its own market explains (measured weekly, 2010/2016 to now, and re-measured over the last 3 years). Brent -1.5%, copper -5.0%, gold -2.0% over the month give: Freeport-McMoRan -3.8 pp implied vs -11.7 pp actual; GDX -3.4 pp implied vs +3.9 pp actual; NSE Metal index -0.7 pp implied vs -6.8 pp actual.

Evidence: estimate +1.06; 95% range +0.82 to +1.32 (538 separate windows, both halves of history agree). Today: XLE implied -0.6 pp, actual -4.0 pp vs SPY. The condition holds today.

Oil does not move the rupee No edge

A common belief is that oil up means a weaker rupee (India imports most of its oil). In our weekly data since 2010 the beta of USD/INR to Brent is -0.012 (95% CI [-0.033, +0.006]): a 10% Brent week goes with about -0.12% on USD/INR, indistinguishable from zero. After oil's biggest months USD/INR rose +0.8% over the next quarter vs +1.2% on all days (CI of the gap [-0.9, +0.1] pp).

Evidence: estimate -0.012; 95% range -0.034 to +0.006 (879 separate windows, the two halves of history disagree). Today: Brent -1.5% in a month. The condition holds today.

Gold miners are a leveraged gold bet Validated

GDX (gold-miners ETF) moves 1.75% per 1% gold move beyond the S&P 500 (95% CI [+1.61, +1.91], halves 1.65 / 1.85). Gold's -2.0% month maps to -3.4 pp; GDX actually did +3.9 pp after the market.

Evidence: estimate +1.75; 95% range +1.61 to +1.91 (879 separate windows, both halves of history agree). Today: gold -2.0% in a month. The condition holds today.

Oil options usually overprice the move Provisional

OVX/sqrt(12) is the 1-month one-standard-deviation range oil options imply (today +/-16.8%, about +/-$15.3 on WTI). WTI stayed inside it 73.5% of the time vs the 68.3% a normal curve implies (n 4555, 217 non-overlapping months; the non-overlapping check alone spans the fair rate).

Evidence: +5.2 pp versus a baseline of 68.3%; 95% range +1.6 pp to +8.7 pp (217 separate windows, both halves of history agree). Today: band +/-16.8%. The condition holds today.

Sources: TradingView futures settles and CBOE volatility indexes. Betas are weekly (Friday to Friday) log returns regressed on the commodity and the market. The futures are on the Futures board, the betas on the Stock exposure page, the rules that found no edge on the Evidence page.

Questions

How do oil, gold and copper prices affect stocks?: Measured as same-week co-movement after the market (beta): Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) +0.76 per 1% Copper move (95% range [+0.46, +1.28]); GDX (gold miners ETF) +1.71 per 1% Gold move (95% range [+1.53, +1.90]); NSE Metal index +0.14 per 1% Copper move (95% range [+0.06, +0.26]); XLE (US energy ETF) +0.39 per 1% Brent move (95% range [+0.26, +0.53]); ONGC + Oil India +0.35 per 1% Brent move (95% range [+0.23, +0.45]). This month's commodity moves map to Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) -3.8 pp; GDX (gold miners ETF) -3.4 pp; XLE (US energy ETF) -0.6 pp. These are descriptive betas, not forecasts.
Does a rise in oil prices weaken the Indian rupee?: Not measurably. The weekly beta of USD/INR to Brent since 2010 is -0.012 (95% range -0.034 to +0.006). After oil's biggest months USD/INR rose +0.8% over the next 63 sessions against +1.2% on all days (gap -0.4%, 95% range -0.9% to +0.1%).
What is OVX and where is it now?: OVX is CBOE's index of the volatility oil options price for the next month. It is 58.3 as of 6 Nov 2026, at the 87th percentile of the past 3 years, and implies a one-month range of about ±16.8%.

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