Measured same-week commodity betas for gold miners, energy producers, copper miners and Indian oil-linked baskets, and what this month's commodity moves imply for each.
Beta after the market is the extra percentage a stock or basket moves for each 1% move in a commodity in the same week, beyond what its own market explains. It is measured on weekly (Friday to Friday) returns, from 2010 or 2016 to 6 Nov 2026, and a row is shown only when the 3-year and the full-history betas share a sign.
GDX (gold miners ETF): +1.71 per 1% Gold move after S&P 500 (SPY) (95% range [+1.53, +1.90]; first and second halves +1.65 / +1.85; validated (weight)).
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): +0.76 per 1% Copper move after S&P 500 (SPY) (95% range [+0.46, +1.28]; first and second halves +1.36 / +0.91; validated (weight)).
XLE (US energy ETF): +0.39 per 1% Brent move after S&P 500 (SPY) (95% range [+0.26, +0.53]; first and second halves +0.30 / +0.45; validated (weight)).
ONGC + Oil India: +0.35 per 1% Brent move after Nifty (95% range [+0.23, +0.45]; first and second halves +0.22 / +0.29; validated (weight)).
OMCs (BPCL, IOC, HPCL): -0.24 per 1% Brent move after Nifty (95% range [-0.36, -0.16]; first and second halves -0.07 / -0.15; validated (weight)).
Oil and the rupee: the weekly beta of USD/INR to Brent is -0.012 (95% range -0.034 to +0.006), indistinguishable from zero: oil spikes have not measurably weakened the rupee on this history.
Measured commodity betas by stock and basket
Same-week co-movement, not a forecast. Rows shown only when the 3-year and full-history betas share a sign. Implied/gap are DESCRIPTIVE. Baskets are today's members (survivorship). Material = the implied move is at least a quarter of the target's own typical swing.
Beta after market: percent a stock moves per 1% commodity move in the same week, beyond what its market explains. A beta of 1.71 for GDX against gold means a 1% gold move goes with about a 1.71% move in GDX over and above the S&P 500's.
Implied: the beta multiplied by the commodity's move over the past month, in percentage points against the market. Actual: what the stock or basket did against its market over the same month. Gap: actual minus implied; whether a gap closes later has not been measured.
Halves: the beta in the first and second half of the history; a real link keeps its sign in both.
Baskets are today's members, so they carry survivorship. Source: TradingView daily bars; the oil-to-rupee test and every other rule are on the Evidence page.
Questions
Which stocks move most with the gold price?
GDX (gold miners ETF) moves +1.71 per 1% gold move beyond the S&P 500 (95% range [+1.53, +1.90]). This month gold is -2.0%, which maps to -3.4 pp against the market; the miners actually did +3.9 pp.
Which Indian stocks move with oil prices?
After the Nifty, NSE Metal index +0.14 per 1% Copper move (95% range [+0.06, +0.26]); ONGC + Oil India +0.35 per 1% Brent move (95% range [+0.23, +0.45]); OMCs (BPCL, IOC, HPCL) -0.24 per 1% Brent move (95% range [-0.36, -0.16]); Paints (Asian, Berger) -0.10 per 1% Brent move (95% range [-0.17, -0.04]). These are same-week co-movements, not forecasts.
What does beta after market mean?
It is the extra percentage a stock moves for each 1% move in the commodity in the same week, after removing what its own market explains. It describes past co-movement; it does not forecast either the commodity or the stock.