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Bitcoin, its dominance, volatility and breadth of the coin market, the stocks that move with bitcoin, the Monday weekend-gap monitor, and the evidence on whether crypto times equities.
Data as of .
| Gauge | Level | Percentile of own history | History | 1-year range | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC vs its 200-day average | +3.5% | 45th | 2014 on | -39.0% to +22.7% | 6 Nov |
| BTC dominance TradingView top-125 | 60.3% | 55th | 2014 on | 57.9 to 61.1 | 6 Nov |
| TOTAL3 1M change crypto cap ex BTC and ETH | -11.1% | 21st | 2017 on | -26.4% to +19.6% | 6 Nov |
| USDT dominance Tether share of crypto cap | 7.03% | 87th | 2015 on | 5.20 to 9.17 | 6 Nov |
| DVOL BTC 30-day implied vol, 'crypto VIX' | 39.4 | 15th | 2021 on | 33.6 to 82.6 | 6 Nov |
| Stock | Monday open gap | On bitcoin's side |
|---|---|---|
| COIN | -2.2% | no |
| RIOT | +0.4% | yes |
| MARA | +0.2% | yes |
| CLSK | +1.6% | yes |
Beta to bitcoin = the stock's average weekly move per 1% weekly move in bitcoin over the last 52 weeks (bitcoin read through IBIT, the iShares bitcoin ETF, so both are priced at the US close). Today MSTR 1.35, GLXY 1.27, COIN 1.15; example: a 10% bitcoin drop implies about -14% for MSTR (beta × −10%; illustrative, not a forecast). The ORDER holds up: at 57 month-ends since 2022 the trailing ranking matched the next month's ranking with a rank correlation (Spearman; 1 = identical order, 0 = unrelated) of +0.41 on average (95% range +0.34 to +0.48), positive in 52 of 57 months. The exact number is loose: next month's beta was typically 0.37 away. Regime: BTC-led = moves more with bitcoin than with QQQ (weekly correlation at least 0.10 higher); now BTC-led MSTR, GLXY, COIN, CRCL, BTDR, MARA; QQQ-led IREN, HOOD, BITF, BTBT, CIFR, HUT, APLD, CORZ, WULF.
Evidence: estimate +0.41; 95% range +0.34 to +0.48 (57 separate windows, both halves of history agree). Today: Top 3 by BTC beta: MSTR 1.35, GLXY 1.27, COIN 1.15. The condition holds today.
The monitor is armed when bitcoin moves 5% or more between its Friday and Sunday UTC closes (20:00 New York time each day), i.e. before the US reopens. The open gap = Monday's opening price vs Friday's close. After armed weekends the gap was on bitcoin's side: COIN 85% of 26 vs 70% (PROVISIONAL); RIOT 76% of 62 vs 63% (PROVISIONAL); MARA 79% of 62 vs 62% (VALIDATED); CLSK 89% of 28 vs 67% (VALIDATED); MSTR 87% of 31 vs 70% (VALIDATED); QQQ 55% of 83 vs 57% (NULL) (the second figure is quiet weekends; QQQ is the control). Pooled over the four names: 78% vs 63% (95% range +5.2 pts to +25.3 pts; n 62 armed weekends). Split-half: +20.80 pt in the first half, +28.75 pt in the second; both halves agree.
Evidence: +15.3 pp versus a baseline of 62.9%; 95% range +5.2 pp to +25.2 pp (62 separate windows, 43 episodes, both halves of history agree). Today: Monitor not armed: last weekend BTC moved +1.4% (Friday 2026-10-30 to Sunday 2026-11-01 UTC closes; the trigger is 5%); this weekend so far BTC +0.2% since Friday's UTC close (live snapshot, provisional). The condition does not hold today.
Average absolute open gap (the size of Monday's jump either way) after an armed weekend vs a quiet one: COIN 5.4% vs 2.0% (VALIDATED); RIOT 6.3% vs 2.8% (VALIDATED); MARA 7.3% vs 3.2% (VALIDATED); CLSK 5.9% vs 2.7% (VALIDATED). MARA: 95% range +2.4 pts to +6.1 pts, n 62. Worked example: on a S$10,000 COIN position the average armed-Monday gap is about S$539 vs S$203 after a quiet weekend.
Evidence: +4.16% versus a baseline of 3.18%; 95% range +2.38% to +6.11% (62 separate windows, 43 episodes, both halves of history agree). Today: Monitor not armed: last weekend BTC moved +1.4% (Friday 2026-10-30 to Sunday 2026-11-01 UTC closes; the trigger is 5%); this weekend so far BTC +0.2% since Friday's UTC close (live snapshot, provisional). The condition does not hold today.
We pre-registered 9 crypto → index tests and none beat an ordinary day: bitcoin below its 200-day average, a 25% crash in 30 days, dominance up 2 points while the crypto market falls, stablecoin (USDT) supply up 5% in a month, and MVRV extremes (MVRV = bitcoin's market value ÷ the price paid when its coins last moved). Example: with bitcoin below its 200-day, QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) returned +4.0% over the next 3 months vs +4.6% on all days (95% range -2.5 pts to +1.4 pts for the difference, n 30 separate 3-month windows).
Evidence: -0.61% versus a baseline of 4.63%; 95% range -2.45% to +1.37% (30 separate windows, 8 episodes, the two halves of history disagree). Today: BTC +3.5% vs its 200-day average. The condition does not hold today.
DVOL (Deribit's 30-day bitcoin implied volatility, the 'crypto VIX') is 39, the 15th percentile since 2021. After low-DVOL days (bottom 20% of its history) COIN's deepest close below its starting price over the next 21 sessions averaged 15.2% vs 14.0% on all days (95% range -3.3 pts to +0.5 pts for the difference): not a reliable difference (DESCRIPTIVE).
Evidence: -1.26% versus a baseline of -13.96%; 95% range -3.28% to +0.52% (44 separate windows, 9 episodes, the two halves of history disagree). Today: DVOL 39.4 (15th percentile). The condition holds today.
Sources: TradingView crypto scanner (a same-day snapshot, one row per coin), CRYPTOCAP dominance series, Deribit DVOL and US-listed ETF and stock closes. The coins are on the Coins page, the linked stocks on the Linked stocks page, the rules that found no edge on the Evidence page.
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