How many crypto rules were tested, and how many held up?

15 rules were tested on the crypto face as of 6 Nov 2026: 3 validated, 0 provisional, 1 descriptive and 11 found no edge.

What does validated mean here?

A rule is validated only when its 95% range excludes zero, both halves of the history agree, it has at least 20 separate windows and 10 episodes, and it survives a false-discovery check (q at or below 0.10) across all 108 tests. In-sample: these rules were written down after a first look at the same history, so every label here is in-sample. Only results logged from 2026-09-25 onward (the forward ledger) are truly out-of-sample.

Which crypto signals were tested, and which held up

Every rule the crypto face reads: bitcoin below its 200-day average, crashes, dominance, stablecoin supply and MVRV against QQQ and IWM, the bitcoin-beta ranking, DVOL and the weekend-gap monitor, with the sample behind each.

Data as of 6 Nov 2026.

Open the crypto evidence in the cockpit

As of 6 Nov 2026, 15 rules were tested on the crypto face: 3 validated, 0 provisional, 1 descriptive and 11 found no edge.
Across all four faces the false-discovery check covers 108 tests: 29 validated, 19 provisional, 12 descriptive and 48 with no edge.
Validated (3) on this face: Same 5% BTC weekend trigger → MARA's absolute open gap (|open / Friday close - 1|) is larger than after a quiet weekend; Same 5% BTC weekend trigger → share of COIN, RIOT, MARA, CLSK (those listed at the time) opening on BTC's side, vs quiet weekends; At each month-end since 2022, rank the crypto-linked names by trailing 52-week weekly BTC beta.
No edge found (11): BTC below its 200-day average (UTC closes) → IWM next 63 sessions vs all days since 2014; BTC below its 200-day average (UTC closes) → QQQ next 63 sessions vs all days since 2014; BTC down 25% or more over 30 days (UTC closes) → IWM return over the next 21 US sessions vs all days since 2014; BTC down 25% or more over 30 days (UTC closes) → QQQ return over the next 21 US sessions vs all days since 2014; BTC dominance up 2 points or more over 30 days while total crypto cap is down → IWM next 21 sessions vs all days; and 5 more.
In-sample: these rules were written down after a first look at the same history, so every label here is in-sample. Only results logged from 2026-09-25 onward (the forward ledger) are truly out-of-sample.

Rules that held up or came close

Effect = the gap against a volatility-matched or ordinary day (percentage points of odds, or % of return; a plain coefficient for betas and rank correlations). Windows = separate, non-overlapping periods the rule could be judged on.
Rule tested	Result	Effect	95% range	Windows	Episodes	Halves
At each month-end since 2022, rank the crypto-linked names by trailing 52-week weekly BTC beta; the within-date Spearman correlation with their realized BTC beta over the NEXT calendar month (daily returns, the sessions after the… Target: cross-sectional Spearman(trailing beta, next-21-session beta).	Validated	+0.41	+0.34 to +0.48	57	57	agree
Same 5% BTC weekend trigger → MARA's absolute open gap (\|open / Friday close - 1\|) is larger than after a quiet weekend. Target: NASDAQ:MARA \|next-session open gap\|.	Validated	+4.16%	+2.38% to +6.11%	62	43	agree
Same 5% BTC weekend trigger → share of COIN, RIOT, MARA, CLSK (those listed at the time) opening on BTC's side, vs quiet weekends. Target: share of the four names whose next-session open gap has BTC's sign.	Validated	+15.3 pp	+5.2 pp to +25.2 pp	62	43	agree
DVOL (Deribit 30-day BTC implied vol) in the bottom 20% of its expanding history (250+ days) → COIN worst close-to-close drawdown over the next 21 sessions vs all days. Target: NASDAQ:COIN fwd 21-session max drawdown.	Descriptive	-1.26%	-3.28% to +0.52%	44	9	disagree

Tested, no edge

These rules were stated in advance and found nothing on this history; they stay on the record.

Rule tested	Effect	95% range	Windows
BTC below its 200-day average (UTC closes) → IWM next 63 sessions vs all days since 2014.	-1.00%	-3.30% to +1.02%	30
BTC below its 200-day average (UTC closes) → QQQ next 63 sessions vs all days since 2014.	-0.61%	-2.45% to +1.37%	30
BTC down 25% or more over 30 days (UTC closes) → IWM return over the next 21 US sessions vs all days since 2014.	+1.15%	-1.90% to +4.06%	20
BTC down 25% or more over 30 days (UTC closes) → QQQ return over the next 21 US sessions vs all days since 2014.	+1.82%	-1.19% to +4.66%	20
BTC dominance up 2 points or more over 30 days while total crypto cap is down → IWM next 21 sessions vs all days.	-1.07%	-2.82% to +0.87%	29
BTC dominance up 2 points or more over 30 days while total crypto cap is down → QQQ next 21 sessions vs all days.	-0.87%	-2.52% to +1.17%	29
BTC MVRV above 3.0 (historically euphoric) → QQQ next 63 sessions vs all days since 2014.	+0.99%	-1.81% to +3.35%	5
BTC MVRV (market cap / realized cap) below 1.0 → QQQ next 63 sessions vs all days since 2014.	-0.75%	-3.83% to +2.82%	11
USDT market cap (stablecoin supply) up 5% or more over 30 days → QQQ next 21 sessions vs all days in the same era (USDT history only).	+0.38%	-0.39% to +1.16%	60
BTC moves 5% or more between the pre-weekend UTC close (20:00 ET Friday) and the last UTC close before the next US open (20:00 ET Sunday) → HOOD opens the next session on the SAME side as BTC more…	+7.6 pp	-14.0 pp to +27.5 pp	21
BTC moves 5% or more between the pre-weekend UTC close (20:00 ET Friday) and the last UTC close before the next US open (20:00 ET Sunday) → QQQ opens the next session on the SAME side as BTC more…	-1.7 pp	-13.3 pp to +9.0 pp	83

How old is each input?

Every input the face reads, and how old it is.
Input	Latest data	Age	On time
INDEX:BTCUSD	6 Nov 2026	2 days	yes
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D	6 Nov 2026	2 days	yes
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3	6 Nov 2026	2 days	yes
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D	6 Nov 2026	2 days	yes
DERIBIT:DVOL	6 Nov 2026	2 days	yes
NASDAQ:QQQ	6 Nov 2026	1 day	yes
NASDAQ:IBIT	6 Nov 2026	1 day	yes
NASDAQ:COIN	6 Nov 2026	1 day	yes
Rule tests (re-measured weekly)	3 Nov 2026	5 days	yes
Crypto board snapshot	6 Nov 2026	2 days	late

How to read the labels

Validated: the 95% range excludes zero, both halves of the history agree in sign, there are at least 20 separate windows and 10 episodes, and it survives the false-discovery check (q at or below 0.10) across every macro test.
Provisional: the 95% range (or the 90% range) excludes zero but one of the other validation checks fails: a tilt, not a rule.
Descriptive: context only: the range includes zero or there were too few cases to test.
No edge: a test stated in advance that found no edge on this history.
Fact: arithmetic (currency translation, hedge cost), not a statistical claim.

Method: each effect is the gap against a volatility-matched or ordinary day, with a 95% range from a circular moving-block bootstrap (2,000 resamples, fixed seed). Prices and indicators are TradingView closes; how the numbers are made; the cockpit's forecasting models are validated separately on the model research page.

Questions

How many crypto rules were tested, and how many held up?: 15 rules were tested on the crypto face as of 6 Nov 2026: 3 validated, 0 provisional, 1 descriptive and 11 found no edge.
What does validated mean here?: A rule is validated only when its 95% range excludes zero, both halves of the history agree, it has at least 20 separate windows and 10 episodes, and it survives a false-discovery check (q at or below 0.10) across all 108 tests. In-sample: these rules were written down after a first look at the same history, so every label here is in-sample. Only results logged from 2026-09-25 onward (the forward ledger) are truly out-of-sample.

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