How many risk-gauge rules were tested, and how many held up?

20 rules were tested on the risk-gauge face as of 6 Nov 2026: 3 validated, 3 provisional, 0 descriptive and 14 found no edge.

What does validated mean here?

A rule is validated only when its 95% range excludes zero, both halves of the history agree, it has at least 20 separate windows and 10 episodes, and it survives a false-discovery check (q at or below 0.10) across all 108 tests. In-sample: these rules were written down after a first look at the same history, so every label here is in-sample. Only results logged from 2026-09-25 onward (the forward ledger) are truly out-of-sample.

Which market risk signals were tested, and which held up

Every rule the risk-gauge face reads: the six flags, credit and rate spikes, volatility curves and breadth, with the sample behind each result and the rules that found nothing.

Data as of 6 Nov 2026.

Open the risk-gauge evidence in the cockpit

As of 6 Nov 2026, 20 rules were tested on the risk-gauge face: 3 validated, 3 provisional, 0 descriptive and 14 found no edge.
Across all four faces the false-discovery check covers 108 tests: 29 validated, 19 provisional, 12 descriptive and 48 with no edge.
Validated (3) on this face: 3 or more of the six US risk flags on at the US close; 3 or more of the six US risk flags on at the next NSE session after the US close; HY OAS (the extra yield junk bonds pay over Treasuries) up ≥ 0.50 pt over 21 sessions, known one business day later.
Provisional (3): 0-1 of the six US risk flags on at the US close; US 10-year yield up ≥ 20 bp over 2 sessions.
No edge found (14): S5TH < 50 and it is the ONLY one of the six flags on → TVC:SPX dip ≥ 5% within 21 sessions, vs a vol-matched day; HY OAS up ≥ 0.50 pt over 21 sessions (lag 1 bd) → TVC:SPX 63-session return; CBOE equity put/call ratio, 10-day average > 0.75 → TVC:SPX 63-session return; 0-1 of the six risk flags on → TVC:SPX 63-session return, vs all days; exactly 2 of the six US risk flags on at the next NSE session after the US close; and 6 more.
In-sample: these rules were written down after a first look at the same history, so every label here is in-sample. Only results logged from 2026-09-25 onward (the forward ledger) are truly out-of-sample.

Rules that held up or came close

Effect = the gap against a volatility-matched or ordinary day (percentage points of odds, or % of return; a plain coefficient for betas and rank correlations). Windows = separate, non-overlapping periods the rule could be judged on.
Rule tested	Result	Effect	95% range	Windows	Episodes	Halves
HY OAS (the extra yield junk bonds pay over Treasuries) up ≥ 0.50 pt over 21 sessions, known one business day later → TVC:SPX dip ≥ 5% within 21 sessions, vs a vol-matched day. Target: TVC:SPX dip≥5% within 21 sessions.	Validated	+9.2 pp	+1.3 pp to +17.2 pp	58	37	agree
3 or more of the six US risk flags on at the next NSE session after the US close → NSE:NIFTY closes ≥ 5% below that day's close at least once in the next 21 sessions; compared with a day in the same trailing-21-session volatility… Target: NSE:NIFTY dip≥5% within 21 sessions.	Validated	+8.0 pp	+2.7 pp to +13.6 pp	76	28	agree
3 or more of the six US risk flags on at the US close → TVC:SPX closes ≥ 5% below that day's close at least once in the next 21 sessions; compared with a day in the same trailing-21-session volatility tercile of the target… Target: TVC:SPX dip≥5% within 21 sessions.	Validated	+8.8 pp	+4.2 pp to +13.9 pp	81	29	agree
0-1 of the six US risk flags on at the US close → TVC:SPX closes ≥ 5% below that day's close at least once in the next 21 sessions; compared with a day in the same trailing-21-session volatility tercile of the target… Target: TVC:SPX dip≥5% within 21 sessions.	Provisional	-2.4 pp	-4.0 pp to -0.9 pp	177	17	agree
US 10-year yield up ≥ 20 bp over 2 sessions → NSE:BANKNIFTY return minus NSE:NIFTY return over the next 21 sessions, starting the next session after the yield close, vs all days. Target: NSE:BANKNIFTY minus NSE:NIFTY, 21 sessions.	Provisional	-2.63%	-5.02% to -0.25%	28	25	agree
US 10-year yield up ≥ 20 bp over 2 sessions → USD/INR % change over the next 21 FX sessions, starting the first FX session after the US close, vs all days. Target: USD/INR 21-session % change.	Provisional	+1.16%	+0.35% to +1.92%	29	27	disagree

Tested, no edge

These rules were stated in advance and found nothing on this history; they stay on the record.

Rule tested	Effect	95% range	Windows
S5TH < 50 and it is the ONLY one of the six flags on → TVC:SPX dip ≥ 5% within 21 sessions, vs a vol-matched day.	-6.0 pp	-16.7 pp to +9.6 pp	15
HY OAS up ≥ 0.50 pt over 21 sessions (lag 1 bd) → TVC:SPX 63-session return.	-0.62%	-4.34% to +3.01%	31
CBOE equity put/call ratio, 10-day average > 0.75 → TVC:SPX 63-session return.	+0.40%	-0.23% to +1.09%	66
0-1 of the six risk flags on → TVC:SPX 63-session return, vs all days.	-0.09%	-1.16% to +1.06%	64
exactly 2 of the six US risk flags on at the next NSE session after the US close → NSE:NIFTY closes ≥ 5% below that day's close at least once in the next 21 sessions; compared with a day in the same…	-2.9 pp	-9.6 pp to +5.1 pp	75
exactly 2 of the six US risk flags on at the US close → TVC:SPX closes ≥ 5% below that day's close at least once in the next 21 sessions; compared with a day in the same trailing-21-session volatility…	-4.3 pp	-10.8 pp to +3.0 pp	75
3+ of the six risk flags on → TVC:SPX 63-session return, vs all days.	-0.53%	-3.64% to +2.64%	39
S5TH < 50 → TVC:SPX 63-session return, vs all days.	+0.15%	-2.93% to +3.18%	33
US 10-year yield up ≥ 20 bp over 2 sessions → AMEX:KRE return minus TVC:SPX return over the next 21 sessions, starting the next session after the yield close, vs all days.	-0.31%	-2.13% to +1.87%	29
US 10-year yield up ≥ 20 bp over 2 sessions → AMEX:XLF return minus TVC:SPX return over the next 21 sessions, starting the next session after the yield close, vs all days.	-1.05%	-3.37% to +1.50%	29
US 10-year yield up ≥ 20 bp over 2 sessions → AMEX:XLRE return minus TVC:SPX return over the next 21 sessions, starting the next session after the yield close, vs all days.	+1.31%	-0.58% to +3.03%	12
US 10-year yield up ≥ 20 bp over 2 sessions → AMEX:XLU return minus TVC:SPX return over the next 21 sessions, starting the next session after the yield close, vs all days.	+1.16%	-0.70% to +3.33%	29
VIX/VIX3M > 1.0 (vol curve inverted) → TVC:SPX 21-session return, vs all days.	+0.49%	-1.60% to +2.42%	71
VIX/VIX3M > 1.0 → TVC:SPX 63-session return, vs all days.	+1.10%	-3.54% to +5.41%	40

How old is each input?

Every input the face reads, and how old it is.
Input	Latest data	Age	On time
INDEX:S5TH	6 Nov 2026	1 business day	yes
CBOE:VIX	6 Nov 2026	1 business day	yes
CBOE:VIX3M	6 Nov 2026	1 business day	yes
TVC:MOVE	6 Nov 2026	1 business day	yes
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2	5 Nov 2026	2 business days	yes
TVC:SPX	6 Nov 2026	1 business day	yes
NSE:NIFTY	6 Nov 2026	1 business day	yes
TVC:US10Y	6 Nov 2026	1 business day	yes
FX_IDC:USDINR	6 Nov 2026	1 business day	yes
FX_IDC:USDSGD	6 Nov 2026	1 business day	yes

How to read the labels

Validated: the 95% range excludes zero, both halves of the history agree in sign, there are at least 20 separate windows and 10 episodes, and it survives the false-discovery check (q at or below 0.10) across every macro test.
Provisional: the 95% range (or the 90% range) excludes zero but one of the other validation checks fails: a tilt, not a rule.
Descriptive: context only: the range includes zero or there were too few cases to test.
No edge: a test stated in advance that found no edge on this history.
Fact: arithmetic (currency translation, hedge cost), not a statistical claim.

Method: each effect is the gap against a volatility-matched or ordinary day, with a 95% range from a circular moving-block bootstrap (2,000 resamples, fixed seed). Prices and indicators are TradingView closes; how the numbers are made; the cockpit's forecasting models are validated separately on the model research page.

Questions

How many risk-gauge rules were tested, and how many held up?: 20 rules were tested on the risk-gauge face as of 6 Nov 2026: 3 validated, 3 provisional, 0 descriptive and 14 found no edge.
What does validated mean here?: A rule is validated only when its 95% range excludes zero, both halves of the history agree, it has at least 20 separate windows and 10 episodes, and it survives a false-discovery check (q at or below 0.10) across all 108 tests. In-sample: these rules were written down after a first look at the same history, so every label here is in-sample. Only results logged from 2026-09-25 onward (the forward ledger) are truly out-of-sample.

More from the Macro tab: all five faces · FX · Commodities · Crypto · Bonds.