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Drug-development software and consulting using biosimulation to design and speed up pharma clinical trials.
Drug-development software and consulting using biosimulation to design and speed up pharma clinical trials.
Sells annual software licences for its modelling tools and fee-for-service projects in which its scientists run the models and write regulatory submissions for drug developers; services are the larger of its two segments. Project starts depend partly on how well funded drug developers are.
Moat: narrow (installed base, switching costs, regulatory licence). Simcyp is embedded in regulatory submissions; switching simulation platforms mid-program is costly.
Headquarters: Princeton, New Jersey, US · Founded: 2008 · Employees: 1,576
Size Certara (CERT) is a United States Information Technology company (Packaged Software) with a market value of $1.84B, the 1858th largest of 3,117 United States companies the cockpit tracks. Shares closed at $12.05 on 6 Nov 2026.
Performance Over six months the shares gained 91.0%, against -20.0% for the median peer and -1.1% for the United States market (cap-weighted) — 2nd highest of 21 in its peer set.
Growth Revenue grew 0.7% over the last twelve months (peer median +17.5%); the operating margin is 4.6% (peer median 2.9%).
Valuation It trades at 31.4× forward earnings against a peer median of 46.7× (6th cheapest of 17).
Price implies For today's price to make sense, revenue must grow about 41% a year for seven years (Req g). Recent delivered growth is +11%, so the hurdle is +29 pp: the price needs faster growth than the company has been delivering — of companies that just grew 25–50% a year, 93.8% slowed down over the next four years.
Capital Return on invested capital runs 9.2 points below its cost of capital (10.5% WACC).
Backlog Backlog (remaining performance obligations) was $128M at 30 Sep 2026, down 13% on a year earlier — 0.3 years of trailing revenue. Backlog detail →
Short interest Short interest is 16.8% of the free float (15 Oct 2026).
Next results Next results expected around 4 Mar 2027 (exchange calendar; dates can move).
| TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $408M | $419M | $385M | $354M | $336M |
| Revenue growth | — | +9% | +9% | +6% | — |
| Gross profit | $198M | $201M | $177M | $168M | $160M |
| EBITDA | $92.1M | $101M | $86.8M | $70.1M | $88.4M |
| Net income | -$2.92M | -$1.59M | -$12.1M | -$55.4M | $14.7M |
| Free cash flow | $80.4M | $94.6M | $78.8M | $81.0M | $91.1M |
| Capital expenditure | $28.3M | $26.6M | $21.0M | $15.3M | $12.5M |
| Total debt | $302M | $305M | $312M | $298M | $308M |
The default views of Competitor Analysis ▸ Charts, drawn from the same data. Open them in the cockpit to change the axes, pin companies and read every value.
| Company | Market cap | 6M return | Revenue growth | Op. margin | Forward P/E | Req g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Certara CERT | $1.84B | +91% | +1% | 5% | 31.4× | 40.7% |
| Simulations Plus SLP | n/a | +48% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| ICON ICLR | $15.3B | +64% | +1% | 10% | 18.2× | 16.3% |
| Iqvia IQV | $44.8B | +52% | +9% | 14% | 19.7× | 17.3% |
| Veeva Systems VEEV | $49.2B | +83% | +16% | 30% | 31.4× | 24.8% |
Peer set: Industry: the same industry and sector in any market, nearest in size. This is the same default set the interactive Competitor Analysis opens with.
| Measure | CERT | Peer median | Rank in peer set |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-month return | +39.5% | +2.8% | highest of 21 |
| 6-month return | +91.0% | -20.0% | 2nd highest of 21 |
| Distance from 52-week high | -4.4% | -40.1% | highest of 21 |
| Revenue growth (TTM) | +0.7% | +17.5% | 5th lowest of 21 |
| Operating margin | 4.6% | 2.9% | 9th highest of 21 |
| Forward P/E | 31.4× | 46.7× | 6th cheapest of 17 |
| Growth the price implies (Req g, 7 yrs) | 40.7% | 22.0% | 5th most demanding of 14 |
| Growth delivered (Del g) | +11.5% | +17.2% | 5th lowest of 14 |
| Hurdle (Req g minus delivered) | +29.3 pp | -4.5 pp | 3rd most demanding of 14 |
| ROIC minus cost of capital | -9.2 pp | +1.5 pp | 6th lowest of 18 |
| EV / EBITDA | 21.2× | 17.2× | 4th most expensive of 9 |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.3× | -2.0× | 2nd most indebted of 9 |
| Company | Market | Market cap | 6M return | Revenue growth | Op. margin | Forward P/E | Req g | Delivered g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Certara CERT | United States | $1.84B | +91% | +1% | 5% | 31.4× | 40.7% | +11.5% |
| C3.ai AI | United States | $1.84B | +18% | -38% | -198% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| SoundHound AI SOUN | United States | $1.85B | -54% | +55% | -96% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Hydsoft Technology 301316.SZ | China | $1.86B | -41% | +19% | 3% | 158.4× | 46.1% | +26.7% |
| eToro ETOR | United States | $1.86B | -40% | +10% | 32% | 11.0× | -18.5% | +15.4% |
| ArcSoft 688088.SS | China | $1.87B | -26% | +10% | 12% | 49.1× | 41.3% | +6.2% |
| Shenzhen Intellifusion Technologies 688343.SS | China | $1.87B | -46% | -4% | -52% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Business-Intelligence of Oriental Nations 300166.SZ | China | $1.88B | -27% | +7% | -5% | 94.1× | n/a | n/a |
| Shadowfax Technologies SHADOWFAX.NS | India | $1.79B | +70% | +69% | 10% | 60.0× | 47.0% | +43.7% |
| iFAST AIY.SI | Singapore | $1.89B | -10% | +35% | 24% | 18.6× | -11.6% | +24.8% |
| China TransInfo Technology 002373.SZ | China | $1.89B | -11% | +16% | 1% | 39.7× | 22.0% | -2.7% |
| Nayax NYAX | United States | $1.78B | -34% | +28% | 5% | 59.1× | 26.9% | +38.7% |
| Progress Software PRGS | United States | $1.78B | +46% | +6% | 19% | 6.7× | 1.8% | +17.2% |
| Sinosoft 603927.SS | China | $1.77B | -14% | -24% | 2% | 44.3× | 23.0% | +0.9% |
| Beijing Haizhi Technology 2706.HK | Hong Kong | $1.75B | -31% | +23% | -9% | 208.5× | n/a | n/a |
| Wuhan Dameng Database 688692.SS | China | $1.75B | -28% | +28% | 28% | 33.4× | 12.7% | +23.2% |
| Pony AI 2026.HK | Hong Kong | $1.93B | -56% | +67% | -214% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Planisware Societe anonyme PLNW.PA | France | $1.94B | +46% | +8% | 31% | 28.2× | 12.3% | +16.8% |
| Karooooo KARO | United States | $1.95B | +25% | +32% | 25% | 24.1× | 10.4% | +17.7% |
| freee K.K 4478.T | Japan | $1.72B | +100% | +28% | 3% | 79.1× | n/a | n/a |
| Ourpalm 300315.SZ | China | $1.96B | -3% | -5% | -65% | 125.6× | 55.8% | -17.0% |
Certara reported $128M of remaining performance obligations at 30 Sep 2026, down 13% from a year earlier and down 15% from the previous quarter. That is 0.3 years of trailing revenue already under contract. Book-to-bill last quarter: 0.76.