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Operator of Australia's main lottery games (Powerball, Oz Lotto, Saturday Lotto), spun off from Tabcorp's wagering business.
Operator of Australia's main lottery games (Powerball, Oz Lotto, Saturday Lotto), spun off from Tabcorp's wagering business.
Pays state governments lottery taxes and keeps the rest of ticket sales after prizes, so jackpot size, which lifts ticket sales, matters; draws are run under long-dated state and territory licences. Demerged from Tabcorp in 2022. Ticket sales are moving increasingly online through The Lott app, with newsagents the main retail channel.
In one line: A state-licensed lottery operator, akin to a Scientific Games lottery concession.
Moat: wide (regulatory licence, brand, network effects). Exclusive, long-dated state lottery licences create a legal monopoly in most Australian states.
Headquarters: Melbourne, Australia · Founded: 2022
Size Lottery (TLC.AX) is an Australia Communication Services company (Movies/Entertainment) with a market value of $8.47B, the 41st largest of 316 Australia companies the cockpit tracks. Shares closed at A$5.49 on 6 Nov 2026.
Performance Over six months the shares gained 4.0%, against +11.1% for the median peer and +4.1% for the Australia market (cap-weighted) — 8th lowest of 20 in its peer set.
Growth Revenue fell 4.6% over the last twelve months (peer median +5.5%); the operating margin is 16.2% (peer median 9.5%).
Valuation It trades at 33.3× forward earnings against a peer median of 28.2× (7th most expensive of 17).
Price implies For today's price to make sense, revenue must grow about 10% a year for seven years (Req g). Recent delivered growth is +4%, so the hurdle is +6 pp: the price needs faster growth than the company has been delivering — of companies that just grew 25–50% a year, 93.8% slowed down over the next four years.
Capital Return on invested capital runs 12.0 points above its cost of capital (7.5% WACC).
Next results Next results expected around 17 Feb 2027 (exchange calendar; dates can move).
| TTM | FY2026 | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | A$3.55B | A$3.55B | A$3.66B | A$3.98B | A$3.50B |
| Revenue growth | — | -3% | -8% | +14% | — |
| Gross profit | A$2.70B | A$2.70B | A$2.81B | A$3.07B | A$2.74B |
| EBITDA | A$691M | A$691M | A$724M | A$805M | A$698M |
| Net income | A$285M | A$285M | A$366M | A$414M | A$265M |
| Free cash flow | A$318M | A$318M | A$470M | A$424M | A$377M |
| Capital expenditure | A$104M | A$104M | A$71.6M | A$68.5M | A$79.6M |
| Total debt | n/a | A$2.50B | A$2.50B | A$2.48B | A$2.55B |
The default views of Competitor Analysis ▸ Charts, drawn from the same data. Open them in the cockpit to change the axes, pin companies and read every value.
| Company | Market cap | 6M return | Revenue growth | Op. margin | Forward P/E | Req g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lottery TLC.AX | $8.47B | +4% | -5% | 16% | 33.3× | 9.9% |
| Tabcorp TAH.AX | $1.45B | +28% | 0% | 9% | 28.6× | 5.5% |
Peer set: Industry: the same industry and sector in any market, nearest in size. This is the same default set the interactive Competitor Analysis opens with.
| Measure | TLC.AX | Peer median | Rank in peer set |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-month return | +10.7% | +9.2% | 10th highest of 20 |
| 6-month return | +4.0% | +11.1% | 8th lowest of 20 |
| Distance from 52-week high | -4.8% | -16.7% | 3rd highest of 20 |
| Revenue growth (TTM) | -4.6% | +5.5% | 4th lowest of 20 |
| Operating margin | 16.2% | 9.5% | 6th highest of 21 |
| Forward P/E | 33.3× | 28.2× | 7th most expensive of 17 |
| Growth the price implies (Req g, 7 yrs) | 9.9% | 5.8% | 5th most demanding of 17 |
| Growth delivered (Del g) | +3.8% | +18.1% | 2nd lowest of 17 |
| Hurdle (Req g minus delivered) | +6.1 pp | -18.9 pp | 4th most demanding of 17 |
| ROIC minus cost of capital | +12.0 pp | +1.1 pp | 3rd highest of 21 |
| EV / EBITDA | 20.3× | 10.5× | most expensive of 13 |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 2.6× | 3.2× | 6th least indebted of 16 |
| Company | Market | Market cap | 6M return | Revenue growth | Op. margin | Forward P/E | Req g | Delivered g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lottery TLC.AX | Australia | $8.47B | +4% | -5% | 16% | 33.3× | 9.9% | +3.8% |
| DraftKings DKNG | United States | $9.19B | -27% | +15% | -3% | 55.1× | 9.7% | +58.0% |
| Toho 9602.T | Japan | $9.44B | +22% | +4% | 16% | 28.4× | 7.9% | +13.4% |
| MSG Knickerbockers MSGK | United States | $7.51B | n/a | +11% | 3% | n/a | 61.1% | +22.6% |
| Liberty Live Holdings, Inc. Registered Series -A- LLYVA | United States | $9.64B | +9% | n/a | -13% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Churchill Downs CHDN | United States | $6.71B | +11% | +4% | 26% | 13.6× | 2.3% | +22.7% |
| CTS Eventim AG & Co. KGaA EVD.DE | Germany | $6.68B | +11% | +14% | 15% | 18.4× | 6.8% | +64.3% |
| Genting Singapore G13.SI | Singapore | $5.76B | -10% | +2% | 15% | 19.1× | -5.0% | +18.2% |
| Beijing Enlight Media 300251.SZ | China | $5.49B | -16% | -71% | -57% | 179.5× | n/a | n/a |
| Benefit Systems BFT.WA | Poland | $5.18B | +54% | +40% | 19% | 23.7× | 13.4% | +34.3% |
| Cinemark CNK | United States | $4.51B | +44% | +13% | 15% | 14.8× | 2.4% | +35.3% |
| China Film 600977.SS | China | $4.48B | +16% | 0% | -9% | 141.5× | -7.1% | +10.4% |
| Lionsgate Studios LION | United States | $4.24B | +16% | -8% | 6% | 52.8× | 18.6% | -8.0% |
| Toei Animation 4816.T | Japan | $4.17B | +23% | -2% | 31% | 27.9× | 0.5% | +12.7% |
| Manchester United MANU | United States | $3.90B | +15% | +5% | -2% | 142.1× | 18.3% | +6.5% |
| Banijay BNJ.AS | Netherlands | $3.83B | -13% | +7% | 14% | 8.0× | -4.5% | +18.1% |
| Madison Square Garden Entertainment MSGE | United States | $3.65B | +18% | +16% | 17% | 32.1× | 5.0% | +66.9% |
| Atlanta Braves BATRA | United States | $3.23B | +1% | +6% | -9% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Itv ITV.L | United Kingdom | $3.23B | -16% | +2% | 13% | 8.3× | -2.8% | +4.8% |
| Ruyi Film Entertainment 002739.SZ | China | $2.94B | -9% | -8% | 3% | 34.1× | 6.7% | +15.4% |
| AMC Entertainment AMC | United States | $2.80B | +109% | +6% | 5% | n/a | n/a | n/a |