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Firefly Aerospace, Inc.FLYCompetitor analysis, valuation and peers

United States · USD·Industrials›Aerospace & Defense

Space company launching small/medium rockets (Alpha) and building lunar landers (Blue Ghost) for commercial and government customers.

Momentum laggard 19
Mkt cap
$3.48B
US dollars, full cap
Free float
62%
of shares outstanding
$/day
$61.1M
20-day average traded
Fwd P/E
n/m
no positive forecast
ROIC−WACC
-50.1 pp
WACC 9.0%
Hurdle
n/a
no reverse DCF
Next earnings
4 days
10 Nov 2026
Close · USD$20.76
1D+36.8%
1W+15.8%
1M+0.4%
3M-19.4%
6M-47.7%
YTD-7.2%
1Y-7.7%
ATR %8.8%
Beta3.52
52w lowhigh66.6% off high

What Firefly Aerospace does

Space company launching small/medium rockets (Alpha) and building lunar landers (Blue Ghost) for commercial and government customers.

Earns from fixed-price contracts, with a customer paying per launch or per delivered lunar mission, rather than from steady unit sales, so cash comes in lumps tied to milestones and flights. Private-equity firm AE Industrial Partners backs it, and it listed in 2025. It is developing a larger rocket, Eclipse, with Northrop Grumman.

Products and services

  • Alpha rocket (small-satellite launch)
  • Blue Ghost lunar lander
  • In-space/orbital vehicles

Customers

  • Commercial satellite operators
  • NASA (CLPS lunar missions)
  • US government/defense space customers

Where it sits in the supply chain

  • Industrials
  • Space launch & lunar landers
  • Small-satellite launch services

What could go right

  • Small-satellite launch demand growth
  • NASA lunar exploration contracts

What could go wrong

  • Launch failure/execution risk
  • Heavy capital intensity pre-profitability

Moat: narrow (regulatory licence, IP / patents). Flight-proven launch vehicle and NASA lunar contracts are costly and slow for new entrants to match.

Headquarters: Cedar Park, Texas, US · Founded: 2014 · Employees: 1,409

Named competitors

Firefly Aerospace at a glance

Size Firefly Aerospace (FLY) is a United States Industrials company (Aerospace & Defense) with a market value of $3.48B, the 1440th largest of 3,117 United States companies the cockpit tracks. Shares closed at $20.76 on 6 Nov 2026.

Performance Over six months the shares fell 47.7%, against -14.9% for the median peer and -1.1% for the United States market (cap-weighted) — lowest of 21 in its peer set.

Growth Revenue grew 179.2% over the last twelve months (peer median -0.5%); the operating margin is -116.4% (peer median 1.7%).

Valuation It trades at 10.1× enterprise value to sales against a peer median of 4.7× (6th most expensive of 21).

Capital Return on invested capital runs 50.1 points below its cost of capital (9.0% WACC).

Backlog Backlog (remaining performance obligations) was $564M at 30 Jun 2026, up 4% on a year earlier — 2.0 years of trailing revenue. Backlog detail →

Short interest Short interest is 8.1% of the free float (15 Oct 2026).

Next results Next results expected around 10 Nov 2026 (exchange calendar; dates can move).

Relative performance

5010015011 May 202611 Aug 20266 Nov 2026Peer median 84FLY 54
Six months, rebased to 100: Firefly Aerospace against the median of its 20 peers (local-currency closes).

Firefly Aerospace financials

Reported figures in USD; fiscal year ends 2025-12-31. TTM = trailing twelve months.
TTMFY2025FY2024FY2023
Revenue$287M$160M$60.8M$55.2M
Revenue growth—+163%+10%—
Gross profit$47.3M$24.9M-$11.4M$26.6M
EBITDA-$288M-$222M-$195M-$127M
Net income-$363M-$298M-$231M-$135M
Free cash flow-$326M-$238M-$190M-$171M
Capital expenditure$62.1M$32.8M$32.7M$77.2M
Total debt$53.4M$309M$168M$121M

Quarterly statements and history in the cockpit →

Firefly Aerospace competitor charts

The default views of Competitor Analysis ▸ Charts, drawn from the same data. Open them in the cockpit to change the axes, pin companies and read every value.

Performance: 6-month against 1-month return

-40%-20%0%0%+10%QQACHR688563600038000738FII600967600316601606R3NK688297BDL000519AIR300456MRCY600435002389301696FLY6-month return →1-month return →
Up and to the right = strong over both horizons. Firefly Aerospace is the large dot.

Fundamentals: revenue growth against valuation

0%+100%0×20×40×QQ688563600038000738600316601606R3NK688297BDL000519300456600435301696FLYRevenue growth (TTM) →EV / Sales →
Further right = faster growth; higher = more expensive. The dashed lines are the peer medians. Firefly Aerospace is the large dot.

Firefly Aerospace competitors and peer comparison

Head to head with its named competitors (FLY vs RKLB vs LUNR vs SPCX)
CompanyMarket cap6M returnRevenue growthOp. marginEV / SalesReq g
Firefly Aerospace FLY$3.48B-48%+179%-116%10.1×n/a
Rocket Lab RKLB$31.8B-50%+53%-29%38.5×n/a
Intuitive Machines LUNR$2.40B-64%+117%-20%7.5×n/a
Space Exploration Technologies SPCX$1.82Tn/a+33%-11%94.9×n/a
ispace,inc 9348.T$311M-28%-56%-681%23.0×n/a

How Firefly Aerospace compares with its peers

Peer set: Industry: the same industry and sector in any market, nearest in size. This is the same default set the interactive Competitor Analysis opens with.

Firefly Aerospace against its 20 peers (data as of 6 Nov 2026)
MeasureFLYPeer medianRank in peer set
1-month return+0.4%-0.2%9th highest of 21
6-month return-47.7%-14.9%lowest of 21
Distance from 52-week high-66.6%-39.4%lowest of 21
Revenue growth (TTM)+179.2%-0.5%highest of 20
Operating margin-116.4%1.7%2nd lowest of 21
EV / Sales10.1×4.7×6th most expensive of 21
ROIC minus cost of capital-50.1 pp-4.6 pp2nd lowest of 21

Peer table

Peer set: Industry: the same industry and sector in any market, nearest in size
CompanyMarketMarket cap6M returnRevenue growthOp. marginEV / SalesReq gDelivered g
Firefly Aerospace FLYUnited States$3.48B-48%+179%-116%10.1×n/an/a
QinetiQ QQ..LUnited Kingdom$3.51B+26%0%10%1.4×0.1%+8.5%
Archer Aviation ACHRUnited States$3.42B-31%n/a-13,570%289.8×n/an/a
Baimtec Material 688563.SSChina$3.53B-12%-1%15%6.9×22.7%+14.4%
Avicopter 600038.SSChina$3.54B-8%-6%1%0.8×9.1%+8.1%
AECC Aero-engine Control 000738.SZChina$3.66B-10%-3%3%4.5×n/an/a
Lisi FII.PAFrance$3.27B0%-8%10%1.9×20.4%+7.3%
Inner Mongolia First Machinery 600967.SSChina$3.22B-10%-7%0%2.0×38.2%-5.4%
Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry 600316.SSChina$3.77B-4%+62%0%2.8×53.4%+8.0%
Anhui GreatWall Military Industry 601606.SSChina$3.20B-22%-10%-7%15.7×n/an/a
RENK R3NK.DEGermany$3.84B-24%+11%13%2.8×29.8%+54.5%
AviChina Industry & Technology 2357.HKHong Kong$3.11B-13%+2%5%0.9×n/an/a
Avic (Chengdu) UAS 688297.SSChina$3.93B-15%+74%0%7.3×n/an/a
Bharat Dynamics BDL.NSIndia$4.12B-28%-19%10%14.1×n/an/a
North Industries Group Red Arrow 000519.SZChina$2.88B-22%+100%1%1.5×23.0%+7.5%
Aar AIRUnited States$4.39B-7%+22%9%1.5×13.2%+14.9%
Sai MicroElectronics 300456.SZChina$2.75B-45%-59%-99%42.5×41.7%+1.5%
Mercury Systems MRCYUnited States$4.48B-19%+8%2%4.8×59.6%+1.3%
North Navigation Control Technology 600435.SSChina$2.65B-19%-32%-5%5.7×17.1%+6.8%
Aerospace CH UAV 002389.SZChina$2.64B-17%+3%0%6.0×n/an/a
Nanchang Sanrui Intelligence Technology 301696.SZChina$4.87B-14%+29%45%28.9×36.1%+43.7%

Firefly Aerospace backlog

Firefly Aerospace reported $564M of remaining performance obligations at 30 Jun 2026, up 4% from a year earlier and down 14% from the previous quarter. That is 2.0 years of trailing revenue already under contract. Book-to-bill last quarter: 0.24.

Questions

Who are Firefly Aerospace's main competitors?
Named competitors: Rocket Lab (RKLB), Intuitive Machines (LUNR), SpaceX (SPCX), ispace (9348.T). The cockpit's measured peer set (industry) also includes QinetiQ (QQ..L), Archer Aviation (ACHR), Baimtec Material (688563.SS), Avicopter (600038.SS), AECC Aero-engine Control (000738.SZ), Lisi (FII.PA).
Is Firefly Aerospace expensive compared with its peers?
On ev / sales it trades at 10.1× against a peer median of 4.7×, 6th most expensive of 21 in its peer set.
How has Firefly Aerospace stock performed?
Over six months to 6 Nov 2026 the shares returned -47.7% against -14.9% for the median peer; over one year -7.7%.
What is Firefly Aerospace's backlog?
Firefly Aerospace's remaining performance obligations (contracted revenue not yet recognised) were $564M at 30 Jun 2026, +4% on a year earlier.

How these numbers are made. Returns are close-to-close in local currency. Revenue growth and margins are trailing twelve months. Req g is the revenue growth that today's enterprise value requires for seven years at the company's own cost of capital; Delivered g is what it actually grew; the gap is the hurdle (honest precision about ±8 points, so read the ranking more than the decimal). No fair values, price targets or analyst ratings are shown, by design. Method and validation.