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Operator of private prisons, immigration detention facilities and community-based correctional/reentry programs in the US.
Operator of private prisons, immigration detention facilities and community-based correctional/reentry programs in the US.
Paid mostly a daily rate per occupied bed by government agencies, so occupancy and contract renewal decide results. It owns most of its facilities and runs others for governments, and electronic monitoring and reentry programmes add smaller lines. It dropped REIT status (a tax-favoured property company form) in 2021.
Moat: narrow (regulatory licence, scale, switching costs). Long-term government contracts and specialized facility infrastructure create high switching costs for the government.
Headquarters: Boca Raton, Florida · Founded: 1984 · Employees: 17,600
Size GEO (GEO) is a United States Industrials company (Miscellaneous Commercial Services) with a market value of $3.66B, the 1401st largest of 3,117 United States companies the cockpit tracks. Shares closed at $27.80 on 6 Nov 2026.
Performance Over six months the shares gained 27.8%, against +4.0% for the median peer and -1.1% for the United States market (cap-weighted) — 5th highest of 21 in its peer set.
Growth Revenue grew 15.3% over the last twelve months (peer median +12.9%); the operating margin is 12.5% (peer median 10.6%).
Valuation It trades at 13.5× forward earnings against a peer median of 14.5× (8th cheapest of 19).
Price implies For today's price to make sense, revenue must grow about 7% a year for seven years (Req g). Recent delivered growth is +2%, so the hurdle is +4 pp: the price needs faster growth than the company has been delivering — of companies that just grew 25–50% a year, 93.8% slowed down over the next four years.
Capital Return on invested capital runs 1.3 points above its cost of capital (7.7% WACC).
Credit GEO has 1 bond outstanding ($625M), rated BB by the agencies and trading like BB- at a weighted spread of 247 bp.
Short interest Short interest is 7.5% of the free float (15 Oct 2026).
Next results Next results expected around 18 Feb 2027 (exchange calendar; dates can move).
| TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.83B | $2.63B | $2.42B | $2.41B | $2.38B |
| Revenue growth | — | +9% | 0% | +2% | — |
| Gross profit | $601M | $531M | $523M | $543M | $580M |
| EBITDA | $488M | $433M | $436M | $478M | $516M |
| Net income | $292M | $254M | $29.9M | $89.1M | $142M |
| Free cash flow | $26.4M | -$125M | $164M | $212M | $206M |
| Capital expenditure | $172M | $198M | $78.7M | $73.0M | $90.0M |
| Total debt | $1.64B | $1.73B | $1.81B | $1.89B | $2.08B |
The default views of Competitor Analysis ▸ Charts, drawn from the same data. Open them in the cockpit to change the axes, pin companies and read every value.
| Company | Market cap | 6M return | Revenue growth | Op. margin | Forward P/E | Req g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEO GEO | $3.66B | +28% | +15% | 12% | 13.5× | 6.8% |
| CoreCivic CXW | $2.84B | +41% | +24% | 10% | 12.1× | -1.6% |
Peer set: Industry: the same industry and sector in any market, nearest in size. This is the same default set the interactive Competitor Analysis opens with.
| Measure | GEO | Peer median | Rank in peer set |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-month return | -10.2% | +0.8% | 4th lowest of 21 |
| 6-month return | +27.8% | +4.0% | 5th highest of 21 |
| Distance from 52-week high | -16.2% | -14.8% | 10th lowest of 21 |
| Revenue growth (TTM) | +15.3% | +12.9% | 10th highest of 21 |
| Operating margin | 12.5% | 10.6% | 8th highest of 21 |
| Forward P/E | 13.5× | 14.5× | 8th cheapest of 19 |
| Growth the price implies (Req g, 7 yrs) | 6.8% | -0.7% | 7th most demanding of 17 |
| Growth delivered (Del g) | +2.3% | +10.9% | lowest of 17 |
| Hurdle (Req g minus delivered) | +4.5 pp | -10.4 pp | 2nd most demanding of 17 |
| ROIC minus cost of capital | +1.3 pp | +4.3 pp | 4th lowest of 18 |
| EV / EBITDA | 10.7× | 8.0× | 5th most expensive of 15 |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 3.2× | 1.1× | 2nd most indebted of 15 |
| Bond spread | 247 bp | 172 bp | widest of 6 |
| Company | Market | Market cap | 6M return | Revenue growth | Op. margin | Forward P/E | Req g | Delivered g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEO GEO | United States | $3.66B | +28% | +15% | 12% | 13.5× | 6.8% | +2.3% |
| Serco SRP.L | United Kingdom | $3.60B | +5% | +1% | 5% | 14.9× | 1.9% | +4.9% |
| MITIE MTO.L | United Kingdom | $3.56B | +23% | +11% | 3% | 14.2× | 14.1% | +17.6% |
| Alsok 2331.T | Japan | $3.79B | -1% | +7% | 8% | 13.7× | -6.0% | +4.9% |
| Loomis LOOMIS.ST | Sweden | $3.46B | +12% | +1% | 11% | 12.6× | -9.1% | +9.7% |
| MAXIMUS MMS | United States | $3.43B | +2% | -3% | 11% | 7.9× | -8.5% | +9.4% |
| Centre Testing International 300012.SZ | China | $3.96B | -5% | +15% | 16% | 22.1× | 14.2% | +13.2% |
| Shenzhen Fortune Trend Technology 688318.SS | China | $3.36B | -21% | -3% | 56% | 69.5× | n/a | n/a |
| PhysicsWallah PWL.NS | India | $4.00B | +18% | +35% | 1% | 100.9× | n/a | n/a |
| SAI Life Sciences SAILIFE.NS | India | $4.02B | +64% | +27% | 21% | 89.2× | n/a | n/a |
| East Buy 1797.HK | Hong Kong | $4.11B | +22% | +34% | 11% | 38.5× | 18.4% | +54.3% |
| Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan) 002265.SZ | China | $3.12B | -11% | +42% | 5% | n/a | 26.3% | +47.9% |
| ABM Industries ABM | United States | $3.10B | +32% | +6% | 5% | 12.5× | -2.0% | +7.9% |
| JHT Design 603061.SS | China | $3.07B | -8% | +93% | 34% | n/a | 43.9% | +30.4% |
| TriNet TNET | United States | $3.05B | +56% | -4% | 6% | 15.1× | -3.3% | +4.4% |
| Brink's BCO | United States | $4.54B | +3% | +7% | 10% | 11.8× | 0.1% | +7.3% |
| Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Stock 605376.SS | China | $2.94B | -43% | +76% | 20% | 38.8× | n/a | n/a |
| Inventurus Knowledge Solutions IKS.NS | India | $2.94B | -2% | +20% | 31% | 31.8× | 21.2% | +45.8% |
| Teleperformance TEP.PA | France | $4.60B | +3% | -3% | 10% | 5.0× | -10.2% | +12.2% |
| Dizal Pharmaceutical 688192.SS | China | $4.68B | +18% | +720% | 69% | 9.5× | -8.4% | +95.9% |
| CoreCivic CXW | United States | $2.84B | +41% | +24% | 10% | 12.1× | -1.6% | +3.0% |
GEO has 1 bond outstanding with $625M face value. The agencies rate it BB; its bonds trade like BB-. Weighted yield 6.68%, a spread of 247 bp over government bonds.