Loading…
Regional Chinese dairy processor selling fresh milk, yogurt and low-temperature dairy under the New Hope Liuhe umbrella.
Regional Chinese dairy processor selling fresh milk, yogurt and low-temperature dairy under the New Hope Liuhe umbrella.
Sells chilled milk and yoghurt that must reach shops within days, so it competes region by region rather than nationally, and relies on its own cold-chain delivery and its relationships with supermarkets and convenience stores.
In one line: A regional fresh-milk peer to US regional dairies.
Moat: narrow (distribution, brand). Cold-chain distribution network for fresh milk in regional markets is hard to replicate quickly.
Headquarters: Chengdu, China · Employees: 10,651
Size New Hope Dairy (002946.SZ) is a China Consumer Staples company (Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy) with a market value of $2.22B, the 1149th largest of 4,839 China companies the cockpit tracks. Shares closed at CN¥17.26 on 6 Nov 2026.
Performance Over six months the shares fell 13.3%, against -2.0% for the median peer and -16.4% for the China market (cap-weighted) — 2nd lowest of 20 in its peer set.
Growth Revenue grew 6.6% over the last twelve months (peer median +4.7%); the operating margin is 9.3% (peer median 4.6%).
Valuation It trades at 17.6× forward earnings against a peer median of 15.9× (9th most expensive of 19).
Price implies For today's price to make sense, revenue must grow about 2% a year for seven years (Req g). Recent delivered growth is +11%, so the hurdle is -9 pp: the price already allows for a slowdown.
Capital Return on invested capital runs 10.3 points above its cost of capital (7.7% WACC).
Next results Next results expected around 23 Apr 2027 (exchange calendar; dates can move).
| TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | CN¥11.7B | CN¥11.2B | CN¥10.6B | CN¥11.0B | CN¥9.98B |
| Revenue growth | — | +5% | -3% | +10% | — |
| Gross profit | CN¥3.65B | CN¥3.19B | CN¥2.94B | CN¥2.85B | CN¥2.30B |
| EBITDA | n/a | CN¥1.48B | CN¥1.36B | CN¥1.21B | CN¥931M |
| Net income | CN¥814M | CN¥731M | CN¥538M | CN¥431M | CN¥361M |
| Free cash flow | CN¥938M | CN¥948M | CN¥843M | CN¥805M | CN¥332M |
| Capital expenditure | CN¥599M | CN¥605M | CN¥666M | CN¥776M | CN¥732M |
| Total debt | CN¥2.20B | CN¥2.44B | CN¥3.10B | CN¥3.78B | CN¥4.43B |
The default views of Competitor Analysis ▸ Charts, drawn from the same data. Open them in the cockpit to change the axes, pin companies and read every value.
| Company | Market cap | 6M return | Revenue growth | Op. margin | Forward P/E | Req g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Hope Dairy 002946.SZ | $2.22B | -13% | +7% | 9% | 17.6× | 1.9% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial 600887.SS | $29.3B | +15% | +2% | 9% | 19.2× | -0.1% |
| Mengniu Dairy 2319.HK | $10.5B | +28% | +3% | 5% | 14.7× | 6.7% |
| Bright Dairy & Food 600597.SS | $1.43B | -6% | -3% | 0% | 30.6× | 18.8% |
| Beijing Sanyuan Foods 600429.SS | $973M | -29% | 0% | -1% | 23.4× | 24.8% |
Peer set: Industry: the same industry and sector in any market, nearest in size. This is the same default set the interactive Competitor Analysis opens with.
| Measure | 002946.SZ | Peer median | Rank in peer set |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-month return | +16.4% | +0.5% | 2nd highest of 21 |
| 6-month return | -13.3% | -2.0% | 2nd lowest of 20 |
| Distance from 52-week high | -14.6% | -19.2% | 7th highest of 21 |
| Revenue growth (TTM) | +6.6% | +4.7% | 11th highest of 21 |
| Operating margin | 9.3% | 4.6% | 4th highest of 21 |
| Forward P/E | 17.6× | 15.9× | 9th most expensive of 19 |
| Growth the price implies (Req g, 7 yrs) | 1.9% | 7.6% | 4th least demanding of 15 |
| Growth delivered (Del g) | +10.7% | +9.8% | 7th highest of 15 |
| Hurdle (Req g minus delivered) | -8.8 pp | -2.3 pp | 3rd least demanding of 15 |
| ROIC minus cost of capital | +10.3 pp | -0.9 pp | highest of 21 |
| Company | Market | Market cap | 6M return | Revenue growth | Op. margin | Forward P/E | Req g | Delivered g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Hope Dairy 002946.SZ | China | $2.22B | -13% | +7% | 9% | 17.6× | 1.9% | +10.7% |
| Morinaga Milk Industry 2264.T | Japan | $2.21B | -9% | +2% | 6% | 14.4× | n/a | n/a |
| China Youran Dairy 9858.HK | Hong Kong | $2.15B | -4% | +7% | -2% | 8.0× | 17.8% | +11.1% |
| Ezaki Glico 2206.T | Japan | $2.07B | -11% | +10% | 3% | 35.7× | 7.5% | +1.0% |
| Milky Mist Dairy Food MILKYMIST.NS | India | $2.42B | n/a | +34% | 8% | 79.2× | n/a | n/a |
| Bell Food BELL.SW | Switzerland | $1.98B | +42% | +2% | 3% | 10.9× | 2.9% | +4.0% |
| Hatsun Agro Product HATSUN.NS | India | $2.52B | +8% | +18% | 5% | 49.8× | 25.4% | +12.4% |
| Leroy Seafood LSG.OL | Norway | $2.74B | -2% | +1% | 6% | 14.6× | 7.7% | +11.5% |
| Austevoll Seafood AUSS.OL | Norway | $1.79B | -8% | -1% | 7% | 11.4× | 2.5% | +11.9% |
| Bakkafrost P/F BAKKA.OL | Norway | $2.77B | +4% | +7% | 14% | 23.1× | 9.5% | +10.1% |
| China Feihe 6186.HK | Hong Kong | $3.16B | -20% | -4% | 15% | 11.8× | -14.7% | -1.2% |
| Shanghai Milkground Food Tech 600882.SS | China | $1.55B | -1% | +26% | 4% | 32.0× | 11.1% | +14.7% |
| Itoham Yonekyu 2296.T | Japan | $1.53B | -13% | +3% | 3% | 13.2× | n/a | n/a |
| Fraser & Neave F99.SI | Singapore | $1.53B | -8% | -3% | 10% | n/a | 0.1% | +4.8% |
| Nh Foods 2282.T | Japan | $3.40B | -10% | +7% | 3% | 14.0× | n/a | n/a |
| Bright Dairy & Food 600597.SS | China | $1.43B | -6% | -3% | 0% | 30.6× | 18.8% | -1.1% |
| Bega Cheese BGA.AX | Australia | $1.36B | +23% | +7% | 3% | 24.9× | 18.4% | +12.7% |
| MEGMILK SNOW BRAND 2270.T | Japan | $1.36B | +12% | 0% | 3% | 7.5× | n/a | n/a |
| Scandi Standard SCST.ST | Sweden | $1.35B | +38% | +8% | 5% | 27.2× | 1.8% | +7.2% |
| Zhejiang Yiming Food 605179.SS | China | $1.27B | +22% | 0% | 2% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Cranswick CWK.L | United Kingdom | $3.94B | +7% | +10% | 8% | 17.2× | 5.7% | +9.5% |