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← CockpitCompetitor Analysis › TCL.AX Transurban Group Ltd.Open in the cockpit ↗

Transurban Group Ltd.TCL.AXCompetitor analysis, valuation and peers

Australia · AUD·Industrials›Other Transportation

Owner and operator of toll roads in Australian cities and the greater Washington DC area of the US.

≈ A toll-road infrastructure operator, akin to Cintra's toll assetsMomentum strong 68
Mkt cap
$31.6B
US dollars, full cap
Free float
100%
of shares outstanding
$/day
$48.7M
20-day average traded
Fwd P/E
84.3×
forward earnings
ROIC−WACC
-4.3 pp
WACC 7.5%
Hurdle
+22 pp
Req g minus delivered
Official | Implied
BBB+ / A-
agencies · bond market
Next earnings
96 days
10 Feb 2027
Close · AUDA$14.60
1D+1.2%
1W+5.6%
1M+12.7%
3M+0.5%
6M+1.0%
YTD+2.7%
1Y-2.7%
ATR %1.8%
52w lowhigh6.5% off high

What Transurban does

Owner and operator of toll roads in Australian cities and the greater Washington DC area of the US.

Collects tolls from motorists under concessions that let it raise toll rates each year by set formulas, often tied to inflation, so revenue grows with traffic and indexation. Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane carry most of the earnings, with Washington's express lanes, where tolls rise with congestion, as a smaller addition.

In one line: A toll-road infrastructure operator, akin to Cintra's toll assets.

Products and services

  • Sydney toll roads
  • Melbourne toll roads (CityLink)
  • Brisbane toll roads
  • Greater Washington DC toll roads (US)

Customers

  • Motorists (toll payers)
  • Governments (concession grantors)

Where it sits in the supply chain

  • Infrastructure
  • Toll road ownership/operation
  • Concession-based tolling

What could go right

  • Traffic volume/toll escalation growth
  • New concession wins

What could go wrong

  • Interest rate sensitivity (high debt load)
  • Traffic volume cyclicality/remote work impact

Moat: wide (regulatory licence, installed base, scale). Long-dated exclusive government concessions on critical urban road corridors, essentially irreplaceable.

Headquarters: Melbourne, Australia · Founded: 1996 · Employees: 3,957

Named competitors

Transurban at a glance

Size Transurban (TCL.AX) is an Australia Industrials company (Other Transportation) with a market value of $31.6B, the 14th largest of 316 Australia companies the cockpit tracks. Shares closed at A$14.60 on 6 Nov 2026.

Performance Over six months the shares gained 1.0%, against +9.9% for the median peer and +4.1% for the Australia market (cap-weighted) — 6th lowest of 18 in its peer set.

Growth Revenue was unchanged over the last twelve months (peer median +8.4%); the operating margin is 30.2% (peer median 26.6%).

Valuation It trades at 84.3× forward earnings against a peer median of 16.4× (2nd most expensive of 18).

Price implies For today's price to make sense, revenue must grow about 28% a year for seven years (Req g). Recent delivered growth is +6%, so the hurdle is +22 pp: the price needs faster growth than the company has been delivering — of companies that just grew 25–50% a year, 93.8% slowed down over the next four years.

Capital Return on invested capital runs 4.3 points below its cost of capital (7.5% WACC).

Credit Transurban has 12 bonds outstanding ($6.50B), rated BBB+ by the agencies and trading like A- at a weighted spread of 101 bp.

Next results Next results expected around 10 Feb 2027 (exchange calendar; dates can move).

Relative performance

9010011011 May 202611 Aug 20266 Nov 2026Peer median 109TCL.AX 100
Six months, rebased to 100: Transurban against the median of its 17 peers (local-currency closes).

Transurban financials

Reported figures in AUD; fiscal year ends 2026-06-30. TTM = trailing twelve months.
TTMFY2026FY2025FY2024FY2023
RevenueA$3.94BA$3.85BA$4.12BA$4.12BA$4.16B
Revenue growth—-7%0%-1%—
Gross profitA$1.31BA$1.22BA$1.23BA$1.28BA$1.17B
EBITDAA$2.35BA$2.26BA$2.16BA$2.16BA$2.06B
Net incomeA$366MA$366MA$133MA$326MA$64.0M
Free cash flowA$1.92BA$1.92BA$2.00BA$2.04BA$1.62B
Capital expenditureA$422MA$422MA$907MA$1.12BA$1.18B
Total debtn/aA$20.9BA$21.4BA$20.0BA$18.7B

Quarterly statements and history in the cockpit →

Transurban competitor charts

The default views of Competitor Analysis ▸ Charts, drawn from the same data. Open them in the cockpit to change the axes, pin companies and read every value.

Performance: 6-month against 1-month return

-10%0%+10%+20%0%+20%00669022ADANIPORTSAENA600018PACADPGMRAIRPORT001965600377600009001872SARO601298600350ASRFHZNTCL.AX6-month return →1-month return →
Up and to the right = strong over both horizons. Transurban is the large dot.

Fundamentals: revenue growth against valuation

0%+10%+20%+30%0×100×200×300×00669022ADANIPORTSAENA600018PACADPGMRAIRPORT001965600009SARO600350ASRTCL.AXRevenue growth (TTM) →Forward P/E →
Further right = faster growth; higher = more expensive. The dashed lines are the peer medians. Transurban is the large dot.

Capital: growth delivered against growth the price implies

0%+20%0%20%9022ADANIPORTSAENA600018PACADP001965600009001872SARO601298600350ASRFHZNTCL.AXGrowth delivered (Del g) →Growth the price implies (Req g, 7 yrs) →
Above the diagonal = the price needs more growth than the company has been delivering; below = the price already allows for a slowdown. Transurban is the large dot.

Transurban competitors and peer comparison

Head to head with its named competitors (TCL.AX vs FER.MC vs ALX.AX vs DG.PA)
CompanyMarket cap6M returnRevenue growthOp. marginForward P/EReq g
Transurban TCL.AX$31.6B+1%0%30%84.3×27.8%
Ferrovial FER.MC$42.3B-10%+5%10%55.5×21.9%
Atlas Arteria ALX.AX$3.78B-21%+2%-20%20.6×-3.5%
Vinci DG.PA$69.8B-12%+4%12%12.2×-1.5%

How Transurban compares with its peers

Peer set: Industry: the same industry and sector in any market, nearest in size. This is the same default set the interactive Competitor Analysis opens with.

Transurban against its 17 peers (data as of 6 Nov 2026)
MeasureTCL.AXPeer medianRank in peer set
1-month return+12.7%+9.7%8th highest of 18
6-month return+1.0%+9.9%6th lowest of 18
Distance from 52-week high-6.5%-12.6%8th highest of 18
Revenue growth (TTM)0.0%+8.4%3rd lowest of 18
Operating margin30.2%26.6%9th highest of 18
Forward P/E84.3×16.4×2nd most expensive of 18
Growth the price implies (Req g, 7 yrs)27.8%3.4%2nd most demanding of 15
Growth delivered (Del g)+5.9%+18.2%lowest of 15
Hurdle (Req g minus delivered)+21.9 pp-15.4 ppmost demanding of 15
ROIC minus cost of capital-4.3 pp+0.9 pp3rd lowest of 18
EV / EBITDA27.4×12.6×most expensive of 11
Net debt / EBITDA8.0×3.1×most indebted of 11
Bond spread101 bp95 bp2nd widest of 4

Peer table

Peer set: Industry: the same industry and sector in any market, nearest in size
CompanyMarketMarket cap6M returnRevenue growthOp. marginForward P/EReq gDelivered g
Transurban TCL.AXAustralia$31.6B+1%0%30%84.3×27.8%+5.9%
Mtr 0066.HKHong Kong$27.2B+1%-6%15%10.8×n/an/a
Central Japan Railway 9022.TJapan$25.1B+11%+5%40%8.0×-6.8%+19.5%
Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone ADANIPORTS.NSIndia$47.2B+12%+23%44%29.4×34.5%+25.3%
Aena SME AENA.MCSpain$47.6B+21%+11%46%18.1×7.0%+23.6%
Shanghai International Port (Group) 600018.SSChina$19.7B+14%+9%23%8.6×-3.6%+9.0%
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV Sponsored ADR PACUnited States$14.5B+1%+20%44%17.1×8.2%+31.3%
Aeroports de Paris ADP.PAFrance$13.0B+9%+5%18%18.1×11.5%+25.7%
GMR Airports GMRAIRPORT.NSIndia$11.1B-2%+29%27%296.2×n/an/a
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology 001965.SZChina$10.6B+10%+26%15%14.6×6.7%+13.7%
Jiangsu Expressway 600377.SSChina$9.75B+13%+3%25%14.5×n/an/a
Shanghai International Airport 600009.SSChina$9.22B-9%+7%19%23.7×-2.6%+25.4%
China Merchants Port 001872.SZChina$9.20B+14%+8%32%12.9×2.1%+6.2%
StandardAero SAROUnited States$9.14B+10%+13%10%16.4×10.9%+13.5%
Qingdao Port International 601298.SSChina$8.98B+10%+4%31%12.0×-12.0%+7.2%
Shandong Hi-speed 600350.SSChina$8.06B+4%-4%20%18.0×4.7%+13.0%
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV Sponsored ADR ASRUnited States$7.95B-15%+26%41%12.2×-2.3%+27.0%
Flughafen Zurich FHZN.SWSwitzerland$7.94B-3%+4%35%20.3×0.3%+16.9%

Transurban bonds and credit

Transurban has 12 bonds outstanding with $6.50B face value. The agencies rate it BBB+; its bonds trade like A-. Weighted yield 4.41%, a spread of 101 bp over government bonds.

Every bond, yield and spread in the cockpit →

Questions

Who are Transurban's main competitors?
Named competitors: Cintra (Ferrovial) (FER.MC), Macquarie-managed toll roads (private or unlisted), Atlas Arteria (ALX.AX), Vinci (DG.PA). The cockpit's measured peer set (industry) also includes Mtr (0066.HK), Central Japan Railway (9022.T), Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (ADANIPORTS.NS), Aena SME (AENA.MC), Shanghai International Port (Group) (600018.SS), Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV Sponsored ADR (PAC).
Is Transurban expensive compared with its peers?
On forward p/e it trades at 84.3× against a peer median of 16.4×, 2nd most expensive of 18 in its peer set. For today's price to make sense, revenue must grow about 28% a year for seven years (Req g). Recent delivered growth is +6%, so the hurdle is +22 pp: the price needs faster growth than the company has been delivering — of companies that just grew 25–50% a year, 93.8% slowed down over the next four years.
How has Transurban stock performed?
Over six months to 6 Nov 2026 the shares returned +1.0% against +9.9% for the median peer; over one year -2.7%.

How these numbers are made. Returns are close-to-close in local currency. Revenue growth and margins are trailing twelve months. Req g is the revenue growth that today's enterprise value requires for seven years at the company's own cost of capital; Delivered g is what it actually grew; the gap is the hurdle (honest precision about ±8 points, so read the ranking more than the decimal). No fair values, price targets or analyst ratings are shown, by design. Method and validation.