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Employees: 15,042
Size Nippon Paper Industries (3863.T) is a Japan Materials company (Pulp & Paper) with a market value of $899M, the 778th largest of 1,379 Japan companies the cockpit tracks. Shares closed at ¥1,227 on 6 Nov 2026.
Performance Over six months the shares fell 6.5%, against -18.6% for the median peer and +1.8% for the Japan market (cap-weighted) — 5th highest of 21 in its peer set.
Growth Revenue grew 2.2% over the last twelve months (peer median 0.0%); the operating margin is 1.9% (peer median 1.4%).
Valuation It trades at 11.8× forward earnings against a peer median of 15.6× (3rd cheapest of 12).
Price implies For today's price to make sense, revenue must grow about 15% a year for seven years (Req g). Recent delivered growth is +3%, so the hurdle is +12 pp: the price needs faster growth than the company has been delivering — of companies that just grew 25–50% a year, 93.8% slowed down over the next four years.
Capital Return on invested capital runs 3.8 points below its cost of capital (5.0% WACC).
| TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥1.21T | ¥1.19T | ¥1.18T | ¥1.17T | ¥1.15T |
| Revenue growth | — | +1% | +1% | +1% | — |
| Gross profit | ¥199B | ¥195B | ¥187B | ¥177B | ¥140B |
| EBITDA | ¥86.1B | ¥88.4B | ¥87.5B | ¥82.5B | ¥40.5B |
| Net income | ¥9.61B | ¥11.7B | ¥4.54B | ¥22.7B | -¥50.4B |
| Free cash flow | n/a | ¥20.7B | ¥21.7B | ¥28.6B | -¥23.5B |
| Capital expenditure | n/a | ¥54.3B | ¥51.1B | ¥61.7B | ¥89.4B |
| Total debt | ¥842B | ¥883B | ¥881B | ¥889B | ¥925B |
The default views of Competitor Analysis ▸ Charts, drawn from the same data. Open them in the cockpit to change the axes, pin companies and read every value.
Peer set: Industry: the same industry and sector in any market, nearest in size. This is the same default set the interactive Competitor Analysis opens with.
| Measure | 3863.T | Peer median | Rank in peer set |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-month return | -5.1% | -7.9% | 9th highest of 21 |
| 6-month return | -6.5% | -18.6% | 5th highest of 21 |
| Distance from 52-week high | -23.9% | -36.7% | 8th highest of 21 |
| Revenue growth (TTM) | +2.2% | 0.0% | 7th highest of 21 |
| Operating margin | 1.9% | 1.4% | 10th highest of 21 |
| Forward P/E | 11.8× | 15.6× | 3rd cheapest of 12 |
| Growth the price implies (Req g, 7 yrs) | 15.4% | 3.7% | 4th most demanding of 12 |
| Growth delivered (Del g) | +3.4% | +2.9% | 6th highest of 12 |
| Hurdle (Req g minus delivered) | +12.0 pp | -0.9 pp | 4th most demanding of 12 |
| ROIC minus cost of capital | -3.8 pp | -4.7 pp | 9th highest of 21 |
| EV / EBITDA | 9.9× | 11.4× | 3rd cheapest of 7 |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 7.9× | 4.3× | 2nd most indebted of 11 |
| Company | Market | Market cap | 6M return | Revenue growth | Op. margin | Forward P/E | Req g | Delivered g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nippon Paper Industries 3863.T | Japan | $899M | -6% | +2% | 2% | 11.8× | 15.4% | +3.4% |
| Wuzhou Special Paper 605007.SS | China | $882M | -22% | +17% | 5% | 12.1× | n/a | n/a |
| Japan Pulp and Paper 8032.T | Japan | $877M | +9% | +10% | 2% | 15.3× | 3.5% | +5.6% |
| Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry 600103.SS | China | $930M | -35% | +5% | 2% | n/a | 14.6% | -0.5% |
| Shandong Bohui Paper Industry 600966.SS | China | $841M | -33% | -2% | 2% | 38.0× | -0.6% | +6.5% |
| Shanying International 600567.SS | China | $962M | -27% | +1% | -7% | n/a | -11.8% | +2.9% |
| Sichuan Jinshi Technology 002951.SZ | China | $840M | -7% | -52% | -102% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Hokuetsu 3865.T | Japan | $816M | -9% | -5% | 2% | 17.2× | n/a | n/a |
| Yueyang Forest & Paper 600963.SS | China | $1.02B | -14% | -10% | -5% | 19.9× | n/a | n/a |
| Guangdong Guanhao High-Tech 600433.SS | China | $788M | -37% | -1% | -4% | 11.7× | 25.9% | +2.0% |
| Zhejiang Jingxing Paper Joint Stock 002067.SZ | China | $787M | -27% | +18% | 0% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Daio Paper 3880.T | Japan | $1.03B | +3% | +1% | 4% | 15.6× | 3.7% | +3.4% |
| JK Paper JKPAPER.NS | India | $707M | -1% | +12% | 8% | 9.8× | 19.8% | +20.7% |
| Shandong Huatai Paper 600308.SS | China | $662M | -25% | -5% | -2% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Metsa Board METSA.HE | Finland | $1.22B | -17% | -11% | -4% | n/a | 16.7% | -1.2% |
| Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology 605377.SS | China | $655M | -20% | -13% | 8% | 13.2× | -7.9% | +14.8% |
| ENCE Energia y Celulosa ENC.MC | Spain | $608M | -9% | -1% | 1% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Xiamen Anne 002235.SZ | China | $593M | -38% | +1% | -9% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| YFY 1907.TW | Taiwan | $1.40B | +18% | -2% | 0% | 23.1× | 7.1% | +0.1% |
| C&S Paper 002511.SZ | China | $1.44B | -8% | +2% | 7% | 21.7× | -2.1% | +2.3% |
| Zhejiang Rongsheng Environmental Protection Paper 603165.SS | China | $554M | -32% | +10% | 2% | n/a | n/a | n/a |